2014: Predictions (10-24-13)

I know; I know; it’s still over a year before the elections, but let’s talk about 2014.

1. House: The shutdown is over and it has, for the time being; damaged the GOP.  This may or may not last until the election.  Although a lot of pundits are claiming the Democrats will take back the House; Nate Silver isn’t so sure and Nate Silver is usually right about these things.  It’s definitely not hopeless for the Democrats, however.  For now, I’m predicting toss-up.
2. Wendy Davis is running! Again, unlikely to win; but Greg Abbot (the likely GOP candidate) has a single digit lead in the polls, so too early to tell.  Lean Republican.
3. Alaska Senate: Democrat Mark Beigch is up for re-election.  Neither of his probable opponents are good; and I concur with most polls to put this at leaning democrat.
4. North Carolina Senate: I would say leaning democrat, but NC has really bad voter suppression laws; so toss-up.
5. Arkansas Senate: Toss-up
6. Louisiana Senate: Toss-up
7. Georgia Senate: Lean Republican
8. Kentucky Senate: Toss-up
9. Montana Senate: Lean Republican
10. West Virginia Senate: Likely Republican
11. South Dakota Senate: Safe Republican.
12. Michigan Senate: Lean Democrat
13. Iowa Senate: Lean Democrat
14. Pennsylvania Governor: Toss-up
15. Florida Governor: Toss-up
16. Michigan Governor: Toss-up
17. Maine Governor: Toss-up
18. Illinois Governor: Toss-up
19. Wisconsin Governor: Likely Republican

Please Note: I’m no political scientist.  I have mostly surveyed other people’s predictions to make mine.  Re-use at your own risk.