2014: Predictions (10-24-13)

I know; I know; it’s still over a year before the elections, but let’s talk about 2014.

1. House: The shutdown is over and it has, for the time being; damaged the GOP.  This may or may not last until the election.  Although a lot of pundits are claiming the Democrats will take back the House; Nate Silver isn’t so sure and Nate Silver is usually right about these things.  It’s definitely not hopeless for the Democrats, however.  For now, I’m predicting toss-up.
2. Wendy Davis is running! Again, unlikely to win; but Greg Abbot (the likely GOP candidate) has a single digit lead in the polls, so too early to tell.  Lean Republican.
3. Alaska Senate: Democrat Mark Beigch is up for re-election.  Neither of his probable opponents are good; and I concur with most polls to put this at leaning democrat.
4. North Carolina Senate: I would say leaning democrat, but NC has really bad voter suppression laws; so toss-up.
5. Arkansas Senate: Toss-up
6. Louisiana Senate: Toss-up
7. Georgia Senate: Lean Republican
8. Kentucky Senate: Toss-up
9. Montana Senate: Lean Republican
10. West Virginia Senate: Likely Republican
11. South Dakota Senate: Safe Republican.
12. Michigan Senate: Lean Democrat
13. Iowa Senate: Lean Democrat
14. Pennsylvania Governor: Toss-up
15. Florida Governor: Toss-up
16. Michigan Governor: Toss-up
17. Maine Governor: Toss-up
18. Illinois Governor: Toss-up
19. Wisconsin Governor: Likely Republican

Please Note: I’m no political scientist.  I have mostly surveyed other people’s predictions to make mine.  Re-use at your own risk.

Lying, Cheating, & Stealing: The GOP Strategy for 2014

Kay Hagan, the junior senator from North Carolina, is a freshman Democrat.  She will be up for reelection in 2014.  And according to a PPP poll released today, Hagan leads all GOP opponents asked about by 7-11 points.  She benefits from the unpopularity of the GOP state legislature, who, among other things, added abortion restrictions to a motorcycle safety law.

That same GOP legislature, backed by an ever-conservative Supreme Court; could be the only thing that stands in Hagan’s way in 2014.

The bill would be an extremely strict voter ID law, coupled with less early voting, and  an end of straight party voting (the check box in which you can vote for only democratic or GOP candidates would be eliminated).

Another ppp poll found that only thirty-nine percent of North Carolina residents survey supported the bill, compared with fifty percent who do not.

Although eliminating a week of early voting and straight party voting would be bad, probably the worst thing for democracy would be the Voter ID law (ironically, that’s the part with the most support).  It would be the strictest in the nation, limiting voters to five forms of identification: a North Carolina driver’s license, passport, a state ID, or a military or veteran ID card.    This is something lacked by thirty-four percent of North Carolina African-Americans; as well as a whopping fifty-five percent of North Carolina democrats (you heard me right, fifty-five percent).  By contrast only twenty-one percent of North Carolina republicans lack an ID.

In addition, the bill makes it easier for super pacs to give more money-making the political intentions clear.

No wonder Hillary Clinton called it, “a greatest hits of voter suppression”

This law will not only prevent the election of a candidate the voters want; it will also keep the unpopular state legislature in office.

In other words, they are essentially trying to cheat at elections.

Wait.  There’s more.  Look at all the states with Voter ID laws:

This is from January of this year. Green states are the ones with strict voter-ID laws, followed by less-strict in yellow; non-photo ID’s are acceptable in states in blue. And the awesome states in grey are the ones without voter-ID laws.

That map is in January. Still, look at all the states the are colored in.

Of course, the Republicans cry about voter fraud.  Voter fraud is one of the lies the GOP tells to convince people.  In reality, there were only two cases of in-person voter fraud in the last six North Carolina elections.  For GOPers with no sense of math, that’s ONE ATTEMPT FOR EVERY THREE ELECTIONS.

The fraud the GOP talks about will have no impact on elections; while their outrageous law will ensure that it’s easier for Republicans to vote than Democrats.

Since the Supreme Court threw out section 5 of the Voting Rights Act, North Carolina has become just one of many state legislatures to pass disenfranchising measures.  This will create an uphill battle for Democrats in southern states in 2014, even those with great support from the public.

Luckily, the ACLU has already begun challenging the law in court.  But the law being turned over is not something to count on in an increasingly partisan court system.

What a shame that the party that loves to ramble on about the “founding fathers” is also the one that restricts the rights of minorities to vote.